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« Can we get the following idea branded onto a few IBM/Lotus executives? | Main| A point of clarification... yes, I *still* believe in the value of Notes/Domino, contrary to what you might think... »

Another banner quarter for IBM, another disappointing quarter for Lotus

Category IBM/Lotus
IBM's quarterly earnings were announced today, and they announced record numbers which doesn't surprise me:

Fourth-Quarter 2010:

    * Diluted earnings per share of $4.18, up 16 percent;
    * Record revenue of $29.0 billion, up 7 percent as reported and adjusting for currency;
    * Record net income of $5.3 billion, up 9 percent;
    * Pre-tax income of $7 billion, up 9 percent;
    * Gross profit margin of 49 percent, up 0.8 points;
    * Software revenue excluding divested PLM operations up 11 percent, 12 percent adjusting for currency; 7 percent including PLM;
    * Systems and Technology revenue up 21 percent, 22 percent adjusting for currency;
    * System z mainframe revenue up 69 percent; MIPS up 58 percent;
    * Services revenue up 2 percent as reported and adjusting for currency;
    * Services backlog of $142 billion, up $5 billion year over year and up $8 billion quarter to quarter;
    * Growth markets revenue up 15 percent, 13 percent adjusting for currency;
    * Business analytics revenue up 19 percent;
    * Free cash flow of $8.7 billion, up $1.5 billion.

Full-Year 2010:

    * Diluted earnings per share of $11.52, up 15 percent and $0.52 ahead of high end of 2010 roadmap; 8th consecutive year of double-digit EPS growth;
    * Revenue of $99.9 billion, up 4 percent, up 3 percent adjusting for currency; up 5 percent, 4 percent adjusting for currency, excluding PLM operations;
    * Record net income of $14.8 billion, up 10 percent;
    * Record free cash flow of $16.3 billion, up $1.2 billion;
    * Gross profit margin of 46.1 percent, 7th consecutive year of increase.

Rah, rah... go team go...

"We completed an outstanding year, with record profit and free cash flow, and exceeded the high end of our 2010 earnings per share roadmap objective," said Samuel J. Palmisano, IBM chairman, president and chief executive officer. "We also capped a decade in which our shift to high-value businesses, our global integration of IBM, our investment in research and development of almost $60 billion and our acquisition of 116 companies have helped us to nearly triple our EPS and return more than $100 billion to shareholders.

“As IBM enters its second century, we will continue to focus on our long-term strategic initiatives -- growth markets, Smarter Planet Solutions, cloud and business analytics -- as we drive to achieve our new roadmap target of operating earnings per share of at least $20 in 2015."

And as we Notes/Domino people are want to do, we head further down into the numbers to see how Lotus did...

Revenues from IBM’s key middleware products, which include WebSphere, Information Management, Tivoli, Lotus and Rational products, were $4.7 billion, an increase of 13 percent (15 percent, adjusting for currency) versus the fourth quarter of 2009. Operating systems revenues of $690 million increased 11 percent (12 percent, adjusting for currency) compared with the prior-year quarter.

Whoo-hoo!  Double-digit growth for the group that includes Lotus!  That's great news, right?

Revenues from the WebSphere family of software products increased 32 percent year over year. Information Management software revenues increased 10 percent. Revenues from Tivoli software increased 12 percent. Revenues from Lotus software decreased 3 percent, and Rational software increased 10 percent.

Oh...

Not so much, I see...

I'm looking forward to seeing how this spins in two weeks.  We have big competitive wins that don't want to be referral cases? Lotus Connections is going gangbusters? LotusLive is climbing at an exponential rate?  All the people we hear in our community who are claiming that Notes/Domino for email and apps is getting killed by SharePoint and Exchange don't really have the whole picture?

Yes, I'm extremely cynical right now about the message coming out of IBM about Lotus.  The numbers continue to slide, yet we're supposed to be excited about where Lotus is headed.  I'm sure where it's headed will be cool... I just don't know that there will be anyone left to appreciate it.

Comments

Gravatar Image1 - Thundering silence.

Gravatar Image2 - @vowe: I may be wrong, but isn't it IBM policy not to comment on the numbers, other than what has been reported? If so, silence is what I would expect.

Gravatar Image3 - I agree with Gregg... with all the SEC regulations and such, I would not expect a response from IBM, as nearly anything that is said/not said would probably end up being potential problems... thank you, American corporate scandals.

The numbers are what they are, and there's a trend just like there was a positive trend prior to this.

Gravatar Image4 - The numbers reflect what most of us in the trenches have been seeing. However, I still believe the trend can be reversed, but changes need to make by IBM. Since Websphere Portal and Forms is no longer part of the Lotus brand, did that have any impact on the numbers. It would not surprise me if Lotus Protector is also removed from the Lotus Brand making the Lotus brand even smaller.

Gravatar Image5 - I asked Ed Brill about the revenue drop and he could not comment. It will be interesting to see what IBM says at Lotusphere.Emoticon

Gravatar Image6 - I asked Ed Brill about the revenue drop and he could not comment. It will be interesting to see what IBM says at Lotusphere.Emoticon

Gravatar Image7 - I don't need to see any numbers from IBM. You can see the effect in the field at a local level. Other measures like job advertisements are a good indicator as well.

I am just looking forward to the ridiculous "phat number" IBM will try and mix in their keynote for a giggle.

My only hope is that they get Ricky Gervais to do the key note address. He did a smashing job at the GG's.

Gravatar Image8 - As Vowe reminds us now and then, to repeat from Mr. Mills, "Make your plans accordingly". For those of you in the upcoming OGS, I'll quote General Mills, "Silly Rabbit, Trix are for Kids".

Gravatar Image9 - Duffbert, according to SEC rules you can only comment on double digit growth.

Gravatar Image10 - Well saying nothing probably is better than telling some stories that were already mentioned in your post.
What makes me a bit more nervous is that the Lotus division is getting hit every quarter while IBM still says they are right on track and their plan works quite well. So far no change in strategy just business as usual. But at the end it all makes sense if you don't forget the words from vowe.
I assume IBM might be tempted to put Lotus under the Websphere umbrella and gone are the bad Lotus figures.

Gravatar Image11 - Woooow, double digits all the way, so intense....

Gravatar Image12 - The reason you heard me and others say "double digit growth" when it was the result is because it was already approved as a public statement by IBM finance in the context of IBM's SEC fillings.

Anything said, positive or negative, outside of that filing is a fast route to an orange jumpsuit, and orange just isn't my color.

For me personally, once I became an IBM executive additional rules apply to my public comments. Sorry. I really want to.

Gravatar Image13 - Yeah... would prefer not seeing you do the perp walk... :)

Gravatar Image14 - Although, a "FREE ED BRILL" campaign would be kind of interesting....

Gravatar Image15 - Michael, that's an insult. Ed is wayyyy to thin for that. Emoticon

Gravatar Image16 - Volker, there are more "FREE ?" campaigns that just for whales, if thats what you are insinuating Emoticon

And yes, Ed is quite too slim for that. Especially compared to me, after having too much Lebkuchen again this winter....

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