Category
Microsoft
I wonder if Microsoft is entering that phase that all companies seem to go through...
Every large company, as least once in its existance, goes through a crisis point where it either folds, becomes a shadow of what it once was, or transitions to a new level. According to Lou Gerstner, IBM hit that point in the mid-90's and transitioned. Many mainframe companies of the 60's-70's hit that point and didn't make it. Compaq hit it and became an absorbed shadow. I'm sure you have your own examples.
Microsoft has been the gorilla of the PC software world. While usually not the "best" software, it has always won by being the defacto leader in far too many categories. But over the last year, a number of things have transpired that appear to be hitting MS hard. There's been the anti-trust suits, but those have had little impact, IMO. Linux, always dismissed as a niche OS, is now making VERY large strides in the server area. Open-source alternatives don't have the same "for nerds only" baggage they've had in the past, and large companies are now considering them for "real" work.
On top of this, MS has gotten continually hammered over security issues inherent in their software. They have also had a number of miscues of late on branding and architecture decisions that aren't flying. .Net seems to be taking flack over a lack of understanding exactly what it means. The "everything will be .Net" branding is now actively being forgotten. MS buys Placeware for collaboration, but it doesn't integrate with anything they currently have. They buy Groove for collaboration, but who is REALLY using Groove for much? And for the high-profile uses we've heard (Homeland Security), do we REALLY want something like that being built on Groove?
I don't believe MS is about to fold... Too much money sitting there. I DO believe they are headed for a crisis point in which market share is falling, revenues are not meeting expectations, and people have alternatives they didn't have before. Will they fail to adapt and disappear? Will they be slow to adapt and become a shadow? Will they have a complete change of focus and "play nice" with the rest of the world? Time will tell...
